Welcome to episode two of “How Many Oscars Will Sean Baker Win in One Night?” And if you recognize the image above from any of the nominated films in this category, then you know our answer is “at least two.” To be honest, I think this is more of a contest than some people would like to believe, and Baker’s amusing acceptance speech when receiving the screenplay award from the New York Film Critics Circle (listen to part of it here) explains why voters, though clearly in love with Anora, might want to look elsewhere here.
But where exactly? Probably A Real Pain. Because the bon-mot-a-thon that is that film’s screenplay is already carrying someone else to an Oscar, and that the screenwriter is Jesse Eisenberg, who played billionaire devil Mark Zuckerberg in a David Fincher production that lost best picture to pablum of the highest order, and that the film is about Jewish identify and generational trauma—well, let’s just say that A Real Pain’s appeal is varied.
But there’s a very strong correlation between original category and Oscar’s top category, and as Eisenberg’s film failed to get a nomination for best picture, we’re hedging our bets and going with Anora. A win here for Baker would, in addition to a win in directing, suggest that the film could very well ape the trajectory of Annie Hall back in 1978 on Oscar night. But I’ll leave it to Eric to speak to the parallels between that night and this year’s looming Oscar ceremony in our final episodes of “How Many Oscars Will Sean Baker Win in One Night?”
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Should Win: Sean Baker, Anora
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