Here’s one that we expected to call early on, given that Emilia Pérez’s nominations haul—a record for a non-English-language film—positioned it as more than just a sure bet in this category. But the firestorm that erupted around Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media posts forced us to kick the category down the road, so that we could look for signs that the scandal might be having measureable effects on the film’s Oscar chances here and elsewhere.
Emilia Pérez may still be coasting to a victory in this category, as there’s no reason to believe that voters who are on the record as fans of the Jacques Audiard film will hold Gascón’s indiscretions against it en masse (case in point, check out this secret ballot). And yet, when Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez presented Emilia Pérez at the SAG Awards last weekend, appearing as if they were being forced to do so at gunpoint, the clip reel from the film was met with a deafening silence. In this moment, it was easy to see how its luck had completely faded.
It certainly didn’t help the ambitions of Netflix’s awards pony that I’m Still Here snagged two additional nominations, one for picture and one for actress in a leading role, where Fernanda Torres is positioned as a potential spoiler after her surprise Golden Globe victory. Or that the Walter Salles film’s message is about perseverance in the face of fascism. Between its topicality and the wave of goodwill that it was riding with the Academy at the time of voting, that should be enough for I’m Still Here to eke out a victory here.
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Could Win: Emilia Pérez
Should Win: The Girl with the Needle
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Torres did not beat Madison at the Globes; Demi Moore did.
@Jonathan . Wrong. Torres was nominated in Drama Actress, whereas Moore was nominated in Comedy/Musical Actress.