Awards prognostication lives and dies on hypotheticals, and if it didn’t, it wouldn’t be worth putting much energy on it. Case in point: We now enter the part of our rolling awards coverage that we’re calling “How Many Oscars Will Sean Baker Win in One Night?” I’ve got no proof here, so you’ll have to take my word for it: Before the official start of the awards season, I saw best picture as Anora’s to lose, and that it was difficult to imagine anyone but Brady Corbet winning best director. And then Baker won the DGA award.
Since the inception of the DGA, the award for outstanding direction of a feature film has predicted the winner of the Oscar for best director on all but eight occasions. Even putting aside that half of those divergences have occurred in the last 25 years, those stats should be enough for us to bank on Baker to take this. But Corbet won the BAFTA, and as my fellow awards pundit Eric will attest, that was the only outcome that would make me hesitate in calling this for Baker.
Some will point out the strong correlation between films winning in this category as well as cinematography, and that Anora lacking a cinematography nomination works to its disadvantage (and that The Brutalist is likely taking that prize in a walk). But in the last 25 years, we’re seeing an increasing number of films win best picture without being nominated for their cinematography. And given that the vast majority of those films saw their directors also win the DGA has us convinced that, in a coin toss, Baker prevails here.
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Could Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
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