2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions

The domestic box office wasn’t the only thing saved by Barbenheimer last year. The odd coupling of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer also stands poised to at least momentarily resuscitate the notion that the Academy Awards can and even should operate in the same astral plane as popular tastes—that it’s not an exercise in futility to satisfy audiences, tastemakers, and skeptics alike without embarrassing everyone vis-à-vis, oh, the new Golden Globes category for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement.

One imagines the typical AMPAS executive, and every Disney-ABC suit, nodding furiously in agreement with Chris Molanphy’s latest “Hit Parade” podcast episode, about how the Grammys have always been at their best when not bending over backwards to seem cool but, rather, just embracing the best of what also happens to be popular. It’s within that very un-election year-like context of four-quadrant coalescence that we offer our 2024 Oscar nomination predictions.

Best Picture

Nowhere does taking the path of least resistance make more sense than in the category for best picture. More often than not since the category’s expansion, we’ve mused how much easier it would’ve been to predict the nominees were the category still limited to just five slots—that it’s infinitely tougher to try to pin down slots six through 10. This isn’t one of those years.

Even before the guild nominations started to signal that something was seriously wrong with the candidacies of most of the on-the-bubble options (ahem, The Color Purple, cough, May December), this year’s Oscar slate seemed to have at least eight spots etched in stone. Make that nine if you, like us, take to heart that the Academy’s recent recruiting of international, cinephile-leaning new voters often sweetens the odds of titles that used to be mere festival favorites.

In other words, we were pretty high on Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall’s chances here even before its surprise multiple wins at the reformed Golden Globes, and fully expected it to join the likes of Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Holdovers, American Fiction, Past Lives, and Maestro. Narrowing that slate down to just five already would’ve been an infinitely rougher go, aside from immediately and unceremoniously casting off Maestro, Rex Reed’s favorite film of the year and Film Twitter’s least favorite.

Speaking of Twitter, we might have felt more tempted to swap out Maestro for Saltburn, another Reed favorite, were the latter’s guild citations a little less comparatively anemic, but its status as the movie most likely to be brought up by your frenemies with no taste means it stays in the conversation here. And so far as Netflix propositions go, we would have also felt somewhat more bullish on Society of the Snow making All Quiet on the Western Front-esque inroads had those profuse early Academy shortlist mentions been followed up by something, anything, from BAFTA’s own longlists. Indeed, up until the arrival of the PGA slate last week, we might have spent this last round trying to talk ourselves into picking one of the four on-the-cusp titles we’ve already mentioned, likely and reluctantly letting SAG’s ensemble bid for “it’s a hit…no, oops, it’s a flop” The Color Purple push that film to the front of the line.

But no, the PGA—the incredibly populist-leaning PGA, who in recent years found room in their slates for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, and Deadpool—instead gave its swing slot to The Zone of Interest. We’ve had some trouble imagining Academy members being particularly gung-ho over the Holocaust getting shunted off screen, like some perverse sort of prestigecore art installation. But the present-day AMPAS constituency has never been closer to the aesthetic middle than PGA, and maybe there’s something to be said for Barbenheimer’s total hegemony among the Academy’s populist factions leaving a wide-open lane for the LAFCA-winning The Zone of Interest to take full advantage of that vacuum at the bottom.

Will Be Nominated: American Fiction; Anatomy of a Fall; Barbie; The Holdovers; Killers of the Flower Moon; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Past Lives; Poor Things; The Zone of Interest

Closest Runners-Up: The Color Purple; Saltburn

Best Director

The good news after last year’s all-male best director roster is that there are no fewer than three—not merely viable but arguably frontrunning—female directors in this year’s mix in Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Celine Song (Past Lives), and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall). The bad news is that very few people think that the placements of Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne, or Yorgos Lanthimos should even be questioned, much less seriously contested. Certainly that sole open spot has to go to Gerwig, right? Certainly no other candidate enjoys the kind of tailwinds that she has, having directed the year’s biggest hit, and one which many think defied all laws of nature in not being a crass, craven, hollow money-grab.

Note that we said “many,” not “all.” While few in the industry seem willing to go on the record as being skeptical of Barbie’s credentials as a feminist Trojan horse, and it’s missed few, if any, key guild mentions thus far, it wasn’t hard to detect a double standard in the way Oppenheimer’s achievements were honored at the Golden Globes versus the pat-on-the-head reception Barbie got there. (Insert that .gif of Don Draper yelling “that’s the what money is for” here.) And then add to that the ominous snubbing of Gerwig earlier this week by BAFTA (who somehow saw fit to nominate Bradley Cooper instead). If you ask us, the real lock among the trio of women in contention is actually Justine Triet, whose Anatomy of a Fall has been bowling over Academy voters all season, and overperformed with BAFTA as much as Barbie underperformed.

As for Lanthimos, he remains in the mix for Poor Things, but the Academy directors’ branch remains arguably the most adventurous of all the majors, and we think their vanguard bloc will ultimately cleave toward Glazer’s even less compromising vision.

Will Be Nominated: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Closest Runners-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actress

We’re frankly still feeling the aftershocks of Andrea Riseborough’s out-of-nowhere Oscar nod in this category last year. So much so that even director Ana DuVernay merely posting a viral Instagram video of her Origin lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor handing out postcards for their film in front of a Los Angeles movie theater the same night as the Golden Globes—saying that watching their work be shut out made her “heart ache”—is enough to give us pause.

Ellis-Taylor didn’t make BAFTA’s longlist, but then again, neither did Riseborough last year, though her buzzer-beater buzz began earlier in the cycle than did for Ellis-Taylor. Suffice it to say that it’s not outside the realm of possibility, though for the first time in what feels like many years, this category seems to have fewer viable contenders than there are for male lead, and when the field is narrow, as in best picture, the Academy tends to stick to the script.

This year that script includes gimmes like Lily Gladstone as a no-arguments-allowed lead, Sandra Hüller as this year’s MVP multilinguist, and Carey Mulligan as the awards season villain. (And Annette Bening as, once again, our most loveable also-ran.) As Greta Gerwig goes, so might Margot Robbie, but even though nominating Barbie for best picture but then snubbing the two women most prominently at the center of its success seems like a very AMPAS thing to do, we’re sticking with the “Oscar wouldn’t dare” narrative…here, at least.

Will Be Nominated: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things

Closest Runners-Up: Annette Bening, Nyad; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Greta Lee, Past Lives

Best Actor

The worst thing that could happen to Leonardo DiCaprio is for him to actually get nominated here, after spending this entire awards season practically begging voters to not take note of him in favor of co-star Gladstone (and, all but explicitly, in accordance with his film’s campaign’s desire to re-center the narrative around the Osage people who were the victims of his character). His chivalry probably deserves some other kind of award, but the surfeit of contenders in his category this year means Oscar may take him up on his suggestion.

Instead, this year’s race seems dominated by two basic through lines. First, coronating the beloved and reliable workhorses, which includes not just Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright but also, arguably, Cillian Murphy, all of whom got tagged by SAG. Second, the awkward standoff between the presumably heterosexual actors playing less-than-hetero figures (Bradley Cooper, Barry Keoghan) and the openly gay actors playing gay roles (Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott). SAG split the difference—giving go-aheads to Domingo, who it must be said appears to be one of the most beloved fixtures on this year’s campaign trail, and Cooper, who has worn out his welcome—so that the galling fact that Ian McKellen is to date still the only openly gay lead to be Oscar-nominated for playing a gay role seems destined to finally fall.

As a fan of the film, I’ve spent the last few weeks hoping and waiting for a sign that the teary-eyed passion many have for the late-cresting All of Us Strangers would take hold and suggest Scott could, at the last minute, push into the final five. But when BAFTA went in the tank for the film, as predicted, but Scott was unceremoniously snubbed, that chimera finally snapped. Even though Rustin is a non-starter elsewhere, Domingo hasn’t missed once this entire season.

Will Be Nominated: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Closest Runners-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Barry Keoghan, Saltburn; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

If you’re skipping straight ahead to see the five names we’re picking, you’ll probably note that we’re carbon-copying the SAG slate. That probably feels counterintuitive given how many still tout this category’s flexibility and number of still-plausible possibilities beyond Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who may as well have already won this year’s supporting actress trophy, and Emily Blunt, who would need Oppenheimer’s impending sweep to be on an order of magnitude comparable to the Trinity Test in order to wrest it away from Randolph.

It’s a mystery why more don’t think of Penélope Cruz as a near-lock here for Ferrari, given not just the demonstrative steeliness of her performance but also her nod from SAG. She’s been nominated in the past with far less momentum than she has this time around. Similarly, Jodie Foster’s SAG nomination for Nyad is, somewhat understandably, being painted alongside Annette Bening’s nod in lead as just another example of that guild settling for whatever easy narratives happen to be in place roughly two months before vote deadlines. Yes, Foster’s case here seems to surround the gratitude she’s still kicking out good work, but has that narrative not consistently paid off for older male actors? (It’s not like anyone generally gave a shit about A Civil Action, All the Money in the World, or Warrior, for instance.)

And speaking of actors, it was SAG’s snubs that seem to have shut the book on the mirage of May December’s Oscar hopes, and if it’s true that the film makes actors feel uncomfortably “seen,” then Julianne Moore’s resolutely oddball performance probably won’t find enough votes (or hot dogs) to move beyond America Ferrera’s permanent-audition-piece monologue in Barbie or, more likely, Danielle Brooks’s good showmanship in The Color Purple. After all, as with Domingo, Brooks hasn’t missed a vital precursor nod yet.

Will Be Nominated: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Penélope Cruz, Ferrari; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Closest Runners-Up: America Ferrera, Barbie; Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest; Julianne Moore, May December; Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actor

Pity the poor, devastatingly good-looking male ingenue. Pity them almost as much, when it comes to Oscar nomination odds, as the clear-cut critics’ favorite. When those two elements are combined in a single bid, well, it’s a wonder that anyone expected May December’s Charles Melton—who has won nearly all the legitimate (i.e., not regional) critics’ awards and looked dapper doing so—to be enough in contention in the first place that he would be considered to be “snubbed” when it inevitably happens. It’s bad enough for him that May December is clearly losing the room among fellow actors. Even worse is the fact that Melton’s most impressive moments all happen during the last third of the film, by which time one expects many in the actors branch to have already prematurely exited out of their FYC streams.

Furthermore, supporting actor is, year in and year out, the category with generally the oldest nominees, and the one most likely to resist first-time nominees. (It’s that last point alone that has us resisting the urge to “no guts, no glory” a prediction for Milo Machado Graner’s galvanizing turn in Anatomy of a Fall.) This race is once again a buffet of mostly grizzled veterans, exactly what the category calls for. Which is why we were pretty certain Willem Dafoe (whose last two nominations came solo, from films that got no other Oscar attention) would show up here even before SAG cited him over his more widely predicted co-star Mark Ruffalo. Still, in all but one of the last six supporting actor contests, two nods have come from the same film. Ruffalo and Dafoe should easily extend that streak.

Will Be Nominated: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Closest Runners-Up: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall; Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

The writers’ branch deciding that Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s screenplay for Barbie would be considered adapted, not original, wasn’t a surprise. They’ve been calling original stories that happen to have pre-existing characters in them adapted for many years now, including Glass Onion last year. It’s only extra eyebrow-raising this year in the sense that this would’ve been Barbie’s best hope for an above-the-line Oscar win. Well, maybe that’s not the only thing nagging, because some of this year’s other major contenders in original screenplay are arguably more indebted to pre-existing material: The Holdovers is a ’70s-drab variation on Marcel Pagnol’s 1935 charmer Merlusse; May December builds its artifice around the skeleton of the real-life Mary Kay Letourneau scandal; and Maestro at times carries itself like a film tightly based off Leonard Bernstein’s Wikipedia page. But never mind, the category un-frauding of Barbie has given what’s frequently one of the fresher Oscar categories the welcome opportunity to get even wilder, which is why we’re sticking our next out for Aki Kaurismäki’s Fallen Leaves to slip in alongside fellow international contender Anatomy of a Fall.

Will Be Nominated: Anatomy of a Fall; Fallen Leaves; The Holdovers; Maestro; Past Lives

Closest Runners-Up: Air; The Boy and the Heron; May December; Saltburn

Best Adapted Screenplay

Forget the win. The contenders in this category are formidable enough that Barbie could conceivably miss out on a nomination altogether. Certainly it’s hard to imagine Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, or Poor Things falling short, which doesn’t leave much breathing room. Greta Gerwig’s film is larded with plenty of pomo touches that should give it a lift, but just as we noted in the best picture race, there’s always that slim possibility that we’re even still underestimating The Zone of Interest’s mojo. But it’s a longshot against a murderer’s row.

Will Be Nominated: American Fiction; Barbie; Killers of the Flower Moon; Oppenheimer; Poor Things

Closest Runners-Up: All of Us Strangers; Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.; Origin; The Zone of Interest

Best International Feature

Of course the main headline here is what won’t get nominated: Anatomy of a Fall, which was passed over by France in favor of The Taste of Things. It’s hardly a mystery why France chose the film that celebrates the longstanding aphrodisiacal supremacy of the nation’s cuisine versus the one that, the very year after France advanced Saint Omer, reaffirms the Gallic judicial system’s almost theatrical crankiness. But once again the byzantine path by which a non-English language film must travel to merely be considered for the international film Oscar remains as inscrutable as, well, those French courtrooms. Despite the French selection committee’s hedging, though, it seems very likely that The Taste of Things is a near-lock for a nomination, alongside the United Kingdom’s The Zone of Interest and Spain’s Society of the Snow.

More years than not, of late, well-regarded documentaries have found their way into the mix here as well. But this year the documentary hopefuls may suffer from being too much in abundance, with Tunisia’s Four Daughters, Ukraine’s 20 Days in Mariupol, and Morocco’s The Mother of All Lies all making solid claims for joining the likes of Honeyland, Collective, and Flee among docs earning nods here. Instead, and maybe because Oppenheimer’s preordained dominance has us feeling especially retro across the board, it feels like the type of year that produces an all-European slate, especially given the notices that Germany’s The Teachers’ Lounge, Finland’s Fallen Leaves, and Iceland’s Godland have all received.

Will Be Nominated: Fallen Leaves (Finland); Society of the Snow (Spain); The Taste of Things (France); The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany); The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Closest Runners-Up: Four Daughters (Tunisia); Godland (Iceland); The Mother of All Lies (Morocco); Perfect Days (Japan); 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Best Documentary Feature

Even if they miss in international feature, there’s no reason not to pen down both Four Daughters and 20 Days in Mariupol here. The former has its au courant meta flourishes and the latter has its brute you-are-there intensity, and both are very explicitly about the swirling toilet water that is life in most parts of the world that aren’t Beverly Hills.

Which means that there’s going to be some thirst for filling the roster out with portraits a bit closer to home for most AMPAS voters, who we see nuzzling up to American Symphony, Matthew Heineman’s rousing (and Mr. Holland’s Opus-level unchallenging) portrait of Grammy darling Jean Batiste as he balances writing a symphony against caring for his wife in her battle against cancer. We also see them falling hard for 32 Sounds, an “immersive™” and very craft-oriented love letter to the art of sound design that, if enough voters were able to catch in an optimized theatrical environment, sounds like the swish of a slam dunk.

Common sense would have Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, David Guggenheim’s first-person chronicle of Michael J. Fox’s struggles with Parkinson’s disease, making the final lineup, and it certainly flatters voters’ propensity for single-subject biographies, but it wouldn’t be a normal year if this category didn’t sideline a seeming frontrunner, and, in the meantime, Maite Alberdi’s The Eternal Memory checks many of the same boxes (and arguably better).

Will Be Nominated: American Symphony; The Eternal Memory; Four Daughters; 32 Sounds; 20 Days in Mariupol

Closest Runners-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President; In the Rearview; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie; A Small Still Voice

Best Animated Feature

While, Barbenheimer aside, few seem likely to declare the last year one for the record books, it’s clear that animation houses managed to turn out the sort of high-caliber work that only serves to make that $575 million domestic take for The Super Mario Bros. Movie all the more galling. That film, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Elemental were the only three animated features to crack last year’s top 20, but only Across the Spider-Verse had what one would characterize as rave reviews. Still, we expect Pixar’s respectable tally of Annie nominations to carry it through, along with the absolute Annie powerhouses Nimona, The Boy and the Heron, and Suzume. Any year in which the likes of Robot Dreams and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem can get left out in the cold feels like a vintage year to us.

Will Be Nominated: The Boy and the Heron; Elemental; Nimona; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; Suzume

Closest Runners-Up: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget; Robot Dreams; Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem