2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Usually, the arrival of Oscar prognostication season is both a blessing and a curse. Namely, it gives us an opportunity to take a playful tour through what passes for the best in cinema in an alternate universe even as we’re forced to reckon with just how all-encompassingly market-tested and gatekeeper-checked the entire annual exercise has become.

Yes, a read through Michael Schulman’s excellent Oscar Wars: A History of Hollywood in Gold, Sweat, and Tears will swiftly disabuse any notions that the Oscars were ever any other way. But in the same sense that dystopia was a lot more fun to read about when it was fiction, the baseline politicking of Oscar season is dishy good fun in the rearview, excruciating in real time.

We’d love to casually pivot away from the apocalyptic overtones and into wondering whether the range of Nicole Kidman’s faked orgasms throughout Babygirl generated enough memes to push her above the fray in her extra-crowded race. But the still-proliferating postponements and calls to re-envision all upcoming awards ceremonies into ersatz benefit events in the wake of the devastating Los Angeles wildfires only underline that escapism is no longer a sustainable luxury.

Continue below to see our Oscar nominations but not one second before doing what you can to help out the American Red Cross, the Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, the Mutual Aid Los Angeles Network, the California Fire Foundation, World Central Kitchen, the Animal Wellness Foundation, or any of the multitude of other organizations committed to help in this moment.

Best Picture

In the continuing saga of box office existentialism, the best picture race this year was never not going to be a comedown for AMPAS suits, who struck the motherlode with Barbenheimer last year. But even adjusting for deflation, the parameters for calling a legit Oscar contender “a hit” are getting ever more creative. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: Part One and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two will serve handsomely enough as spiritual successors to, respectively, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, though neither have close to the same level of critical acclaim, and one would be hard-pressed to call either a bona fide four-quadrant slayer.

Timothy Chalamet’s star power and Boomers’ disposable income helped James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown surpass $50 million in just three weeks. Conclave, which as expected hoovered up nearly as many BAFTA nods as director Edward Berger’s previous All Quiet on the Western Front did, quietly passed $30 million in very much marathon-not-sprint fashion, just ahead of assured Razzie fave Reagan. And even though The Substance’s $16.5 million cume is hardly world-beating, for MUBI it may as well be Star Wars (and being the year’s most-memed movie counts for something far more valuable in our crypto-forward era).

Still, if those are the bright spots, yeesh. All five are presumptive locks, along with Palme d’Or winner and potential all-time fastest Criterion Collection addition ever Anora, Golden Globe winner and analog enthusiast insta-classic The Brutalist, and also-Golden Globe winner and (no matter how Netflix spins it) critical and popular non-hit Emilia Pérez.

The last two slots, wide open and yet hardly competitive, are going to come down to which of roughly three or four possibilities manage to scrape up enough support, and based on Academy trends, Nickel Boys’s vanguard-arty POV of enduring American injustice and A Real Pain’s curiously contemporary portrait of globally shared, mournful isolation feel like they’re at the front of the pack, though there’s every reason to think that L.A.-based voters whose neighborhoods are currently being saved by, among others, incarcerated firefighters might be in exactly the headspace to resuscitate Sing Sing’s otherwise flagging chances.

Will Be Nominated: Anora; The Brutalist; A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Nickel Boys; A Real Pain; The Substance; Wicked

Closest Runners-Up: All We Imagine As Light; I’m Still Here; Sing Sing

Best Director

The BAFTA nominations brought some much-needed good news to the conclave of dogged Denis Villeneuve stans, who now have just enough hope that he’ll finally make it through for a, to them, long overdue second best director Oscar nod for Dune: Part Two. While it’s exceedingly rare for a best director slate to be made up entirely of first-time nominees, we think this year’s going to be an exception, if for no other reason than Villeneuve missed out on a nod for the first installment of Dune and many seem to have cooled off on the franchise this time around. Even if they hadn’t, the directors’ branch’s habit for pulling leftfield options from even the staidest of Oscar years (which, make no mistake, this is) means there may be more candidates in the mix here than there are viable best picture contenders.

But because the bulk of those candidates fall into the more uncompromising side of the aesthetic field, it shouldn’t be too hard for consensus to coalesce around Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). We’re not fully sold on Edward Berger appealing to the branch’s auteur-minded demo (and we’re not alone), but we can’t help but note that Conclave’s appeal has spread far broader than his previous attempt (and whiff) at a nod.

That leaves just one slot to address any number of representative interests. The DGA opted for journeyman James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), but it’s increasingly difficult for this category to congeal without an international marquee name. Because precursors have split the room almost evenly between All We Imagine As Light’s Payal Kapadia and The Seed of the Sacred Fig’s Mohammad Rasoulof, Audiard may have to suffice.

And while the surprising box office success of Robert Eggers’s Nosferatu has far eclipsed that of The Substance, Coralie Fargeat’s painfully (and, we admit, probably purposefully) on-the-nose messaging probably ensures she can break through in a category that still regards gender parity as a “nice to have” rather than a legitimate imperative.

Will Be Nominated: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Closest Runners-Up: Robert Eggers, Nosferatu; Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

As to that on-the-nose matter, Demi Moore’s candidacy has been underestimated virtually since The Substance’s Cannes debut. But we had little doubt that once the industry awards started rolling in, the synthesis of text and subtext would be more than enough to counter any potential genre resistance. Nearly as little doubt that Moore would be up against her Cannes competitors Mikey Madison (Anora) and Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez).

Because three slots feel locked down, every Oscar blogger is making sure that the wealth of candidates in this race is their lead story this year, perhaps in an effort to shine light on their own pet favorites. And for many, their first subhead is the excruciatingly likely outcome that the year’s most critically acclaimed performance—Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s seven-course meal of misanthropy in Hard Truths—will be one of the many casualties of this bloodbath of a category.

Up until this week, we weren’t convinced that Cynthia Erivo’s Elphaba had the juice to rise above the flurry of possibility. But since she now has a BAFTA nod to go alongside her far-more-expected SAG bid, we stand converted. So who gets the last spot? Based on precursor heat, not Angelina Jolie (Maria). Otherwise, pick a card, any card. Fernanda Torres’s Golden Globe win for I’m Still Here came at precisely the right moment to help add clarity for voters, and SAG’s surprising enthusiasm for The Last Showgirl can’t hurt Pamela Anderson. But we think Nicole Kidman’s commanding work will return her to Oscar’s good graces.

Will Be Nominated: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance

Closest Runners-Up: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here; Kate Winslet, Lee

Best Actor

No other major category this year is as open-and-shut, at least so far as nominations are concerned. The only outstanding question here is whether voters stick with what has seemed to be the season’s clear-cut fifth-slotter, Daniel Craig (Queer), or, instead, break the seeming stalemate over Sebastian Stan’s two roles vying for candidacy. And while BAFTA voters are likely a bit less likely to be triggered by The Apprentice than Hollywood liberals, the fact that Craig’s vehicle has virtually no Oscar buzz in any other category (and failed to come through with a BAFTA nod) means that Stan is probably in the driver’s seat here.

Will Be Nominated: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Dolman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Closest Runners-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer; Hugh Grant, Heretic; Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Best supporting actress is roughly as crowded with contenders as best actress but feels twice as chaotic when it comes to figuring out which ones will break through. Even Isabella Rossellini remains solidly in the hunt. Her eight minutes and 16 seconds of curtseying and (mostly) biting her tough in Conclave’s margins would seem far too diminutive to qualify to the naked eye, but as a helpful Twitter user pointed out, 17 previous supporting actress nominees boasted even less screen time (and two of those, Beatrice Straight and Judi Dench, actually won).

Anyway, we never expected we’d see the phrase “Academy Award-nominated actress Ariana Grande” quite this soon, but she and Zoe Saldaña appear to be the only sure shots here. Will Grande have to face off against pop starlet rival Selena Gomez? Will the just-now cresting A Complete Unknown push late-breaker Monica Barbaro above the fray? Should the SAG snubs for Margaret Qualley and Felicity Jones be taken as more than just blips? Will Oscar really ignore high-profile recent snubees Danielle Deadwyler and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor? Is there anyone better on the campaign trail than Jamie Lee Curtis? And why the hell didn’t Carol Kane’s New York Film Critics’ Circle win build into anything else this season, and why did we kind of immediately know that would happen? We could spend more time unpacking trends and history here, but then we’d be going on longer than Rossellini appears on screen in Conclave.

Will Be Nominated: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Closest Runners-Up: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

“Supporting actor is, year in and year out, the (acting) category with generally the oldest nominees, and the one most likely to resist first-time nominees.” So we wrote last year right before AMPAS more or less fulfilled that maxim, aside from opting for Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction over Willem Dafoe in Poor Things. That would bode pretty well for hopefuls like A Complete Unknown’s Edward Norton, Gladiator II’s Denzel Washington and Conclave’s Stanley Tucci (or even John Lithgow), no? Well only one of those (Norton) was cited by either SAG or BAFTA, so let’s call this year an exception to the rule in this category. (One trend that didn’t buckle this year? BAFTA’s curious inability to nominate Washington, like ever.)

Meanwhile, alongside Norton, Yura Borisov, Jeremy Strong, and presumptive winner Kieran Culkin haven’t missed a major heat yet, so the only question that remains is whether Clarence Maclin can capitalize on Sing Sing’s status as Oscar bloggers’ longest-tailed pet project ever (it played Toronto nearly a year and a half ago now) or if The Brutalist can overtake BAFTA fave Conclave to ensure Guy Pearce’s candidacy over industry darling Stanley Tucci.

Will Be Nominated: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Closest Runners-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Stanley Tucci, Conclave; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Best Original Screenplay

While the writers’ branch may be the likeliest to bring international sensations All We Imagine As Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig their only above-the-line nomination, they’re more likely to throw another nomination at Mike Leigh, who has been nominated in this category five times before, but hasn’t scored a nod since Another Year in 2010.

Will Be Nominated: Anora; The Brutalist; Hard Truths; A Real Pain; The Substance

Closest Runners-Up: All We Imagine As Light; Civil War; Challengers; The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Adapted Screenplay

As curious as it is that Mike Leigh’s improvisation-focused actor showcases have much better luck getting nominated for their writing than their performances, it seems pretty much a fait accompli that the visually daring Nickel Boys’s best shot at an Oscar nomination this year isn’t for directing or cinematography, but rather here, furthering the screenplay categories’ reputation as the Oscars’ great consolation prize.

Will Be Nominated: A Complete Unknwon; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Nickel Boys; Sing Sing

Closest Runners-Up: Dune: Part Two; I’m Still Here; Wicked

Best International Feature

If there’s a surprise nomination lurking in the margins of this year’s Oscar race, it might be Thailand’s international feature submission How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies. In a category stacked with plausible multiple-nominated movies and long-established arthouse auteurs, Pat Boonnitipat’s film marks Thailand’s first time making this category’s final shortlist, and has quietly racked up tens of millions in the international box office. Only BAFTA’s (understandable) love for Rich Peppiatt’s Kneecap is keeping us from making the plunge here.

Will Be Nominated: Emilia Pérez (France); Flow (Latvia); I’m Still Here (Brazil); Kneecap (Ireland); The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Closest Runners-Up: The Girl with the Needle (Denmark); How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand); Vermiglio (Italy)

Best Documentary Feature

Last week, the Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg fired a preemptive shot on behalf of Will & Harper’s candidacy here by underlining (and presumably hoping to exorcise) the documentary branch’s “strange aversion to celeb-related projects.” Never mind that many of the other documentaries that Feinberg cited as having been wrongly snubbed were, in fact, passed over in favor of eminently defensible alternatives like Hale County This Morning, This Evening, Honeyland, Collective, A House Made of Splinters, and Four Daughters.

In a vacuum, the modest aims of Will & Harper might not clear any more space around itself than did Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, American Symphony, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, or Val before it. But we don’t live in a vacuum. Rather, we live in a timeline that many say saw anti-trans hysteria help swing an American election to an unthinkable conclusion (despite all manner of polling suggesting the issue is a non-starter with most of the electorate). So here we are, predicting precedent to fall in favor of a celebrity-driven doc.

Will Be Nominated: Dahomey; Daughters; No Other Land; Sugarcane; Will & Harper

Closest Runners-Up: Black Box Diaries; Porcelain War; Soundtrack for a Coup d’Etat; Union

Best Animated Feature

Unless Moana 2 can use its billion dollars’ worth of worldwide box office flex to surmount the fact that almost no adult much liked it, this category’s lineup feels pretty set in stone, despite Memoir of a Snail being (as my colleague put it) “misery porn (and) a tough watch,” and possible stealth frontrunner Flow being no less grim in its implications for mankind’s futures.

Will Be Nominated: Flow; Inside Out 2; Memoir of a Snail; Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl; The Wild Robot

Closest Runners-Up: Moana 2