As Ed mentioned yesterday, a chunk of our remaining predictions from here on out will be installments in the exciting new series “How Many Oscars Will Sean Baker Win in One Night?” However, the remaining craft categories find us offering up the equally compelling, far more ignoble counterprogramming of “Will Wicked Follow in Barbie’s Footsteps and Get Near-Scotched at the Oscars?” (At least for today, we don’t have to pause for our standard “How totally and royally cooked is Emilia Pérez?” station identification, as production design is one of the few categories mercifully untouched by that film’s hydra-like reach.)
Almost as if affirming the lion’s share of Oscar prognosticators, BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild Awards both waved ahead the merry old Land of Oz with wins last weekend (albeit in the far less competitive fantasy genre category in ADG’s case). Some might look to the fact that Wicked’s Nathan Crowley has amassed seven nominations in production design without a win as somehow sealing the deal, but craft categories aren’t as subject to the “overdue” narrative as acting contests. Otherwise, we’d have seen Diane Warren thanking the Academy years ago.
After looking back at how Oscar’s craft categories have been decided of late, we’re perplexed that more people don’t see this as The Brutalist’s to lose. Much like the garments of Phantom Thread or the immersive sound design of Sound of Metal, the production design of Brady Corbet’s sprawling epic isn’t just there to put on a show—it is the show. So while ADG opting for the admittedly sumptuous period embellishments of Nosferatu over The Brutalist gives us momentary pause, we feel confident that the Academy will carry on their tradition of rewarding craft elements that play central, diegetic roles in their films’ storylines.
Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Nosferatu
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