No sound this Oscar season has been more deafening than the radio silence from the industry that handed Emilia Pérez 13 nominations a month ago, which has been rivaled only in amplitude by a studio and star trying, desperately, to get through the last stanza of “Nearer My God to Thee” before their sinking ship finally slips under the waves.
We often wait until the end to call the year’s toughest races, though in retrospect, we were probably overthinking this particular contest. In January, it looked a lot more like Emilia Pérez was an all-consuming juggernaut, due to its entirely unnecessary nominations in more than just this category. In January, it looked a lot more like A Complete Unknown was our 11th-hour spoiler, and that by this time next week our TikToks would be flooded with cuts from Timmy’s Oscar acceptance speech. In January, we assumed that Dune: Part Two getting half the nods the first installment got meant it was just lucky to be invited at all to the party.
But the sound categories have been remarkably adherent to historical patterns. And even though it’s been but a few years since sound mixing (which always broke for musicals, when one was available) and sound editing (which reliably steered toward action, explosions, and artillery) were mercifully merged, we’ve seen enough to know that musicals are no longer as dominant a force even when there aren’t arguably three of them jockeying for position, as they are this year. While there’s always the chance that our belief that Wicked will follow in Barbie’s footsteps and get near-scotched on Oscar night will blow up in our faces, it’s hard not to see Dune: Part Two’s very serious-minded sandworm mayhem as being very much in its own lane here.
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
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