Since this category contains nominations for neither Anora nor Wicked—the two films whose Oscar futures we have unceremoniously turned into game shows for, frankly, our own amusement—we’re tempted to just rerack our assessment of Conclave from two days ago and call it a day: “Its twists and turns may be more risibly unserious than those of the much derided Emilia Pérez…but it’s not lost on us that Edward Berger’s film is also among the rapidly dwindling adult entertainments that don’t overstay their welcome by at least two reels’ worth.”
This race has more best picture nominees in the mix than the one for original screenplay, but compared to that toss-up, this one is a done deal. Peter Straughan’s failure, as it were, to transcend Conclave’s airport-novel origins would already have been more of a virtue than a liability here. The unflappable narrative drive of his script proves a model for concision and momentum compared against this field of largely meandering efforts from a group of scripters who, judging from the evidence, wouldn’t know Robert McKee from Robert McNamara.
But then add to that advantage the film’s exceptionally obvious utility as a metaphor for what the average Oscar voter undoubtedly feels every late winter, and the race ends up this year’s easiest call, no game show required. Indeed, it’s all too easy to picture Oscar voters donning their red robes and hunkering down to square up a field of flawed, politically diametric options, driven by a near-religious piety toward a creaky institution that most bomb-lobbing outside observers agree has long outlived its utility—if, indeed, it ever had any.
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Conclave
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